Economic & Market Report: Inflation, The Sequel

It was a blockbuster forty years in the making.  Following its first breakout hit since the late 1970s, the burst of inflation that has defined the early 2020s has increasingly been coming down the other side of the mountain.  Stocks have found comfort throughout this year as the pricing craze has increasingly faded into to the background.  But reminiscent of …

Economic & Market Report: Why Bonds? Why Now?

The U.S. stock market has had a banner year so far.  The S&P 500 is higher by double-digits year-to-date, and what was shaping up to be a lousy August has been surging back toward breakeven as the month draws to a close.  But while stocks continue to mend following a particularly difficult 2022, the bond market rebound has been far …

Economic & Market Report: Red Alert

The U.S. stock market has hit a rough patch in recent weeks. Just as notable has been the sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields over the past month. While it is understandable for U.S. investors to look inward in seeking explanations for why both stocks and bonds are performing poorly as of late despite a domestic economy that remains solid …

Economic & Market Report: The Dog Days of Summer

The dog days of summer have descended on capital markets in recent weeks. Following a blistering rally that began with the government resolution to the banking crises in March and accelerated as we moved into the summer months, U.S. stocks have been fading to the downside since the start of August. What can we take away from this recent pullback …

Economic & Market Report: Cool Inflation Summer

The primary risk for financial markets in the second half of the year in this Chief Market Strategist’s view is a renewed rise in inflation.  Over the past year, capital markets have been cheered by the notion that the surge in inflation that began in 2021 and peaked in mid-2022 is increasingly fading into the rearview mirror, thus enabling the …

Economic & Market Report: Strange Market Bedfellows Worth Monitoring

When monitoring capital markets, strange and unexpected relationships can exist between two market segments. Correlation without causation? Perhaps, but these bedfellows often come together for understandable reasons when considered more thoughtfully. Three particular relationships stand out today as worth monitoring for risk and opportunity as we continue through the second half of the year and beyond. The NASDAQ 100 and …

Economic & Market Report: Putting Junk to Good Use

The debate remains ongoing across the economic landscape and financial markets.  Will the economy fall into recession between now and the end of the year?  And will any looming economic slowdown push the U.S. stock market back into bear market territory?  While a number of indicators are flashing conflicting signals, one historically reliable reading within capital markets is emoting a …

Economic & Market Report: A Closer Look at Corporate Earnings Season

Corporate earnings season is underway once again.  With the second quarter of 2023 having just drawn to a close at the end of June, publicly traded companies will soon be coming forward to not only reflect on their recent operating results, but perhaps more importantly to update their projections on performance through the remainder of the this year and next.  …

Economic & Market Report: Outlook from Jackson Hole

On Wednesday, I had the opportunity to attend the GIC Teton Economic Outlook conference in Wyoming.  The event brought together some of the best and most thoughtful economic and financial minds in the industry today for an interactive discussion about the broader macroeconomic and investment outlook as well as more focused discussions on labor markets and cryptocurrencies.  What made this event even …

Economic & Market Report: The Four Horses for Portfolio Gains

The outlook is strong for asset allocation portfolios heading into the second half of 2023.  From a broad diversification perspective, markets are providing good reasons for optimism across the key asset class spectrum.  Of course, the outlook is not without risks that must also be considered. Stocks. The trend for stocks as measured by the S&P 500 is definitively to the …